MedSea Projections

Under all future carbon emission scenarios from the IPCC, it is well known that ocean acidification will intensify. Global-scale models confirm this overall trend while providing a more realistic regional picture, relative to simple equilibrium calculations, particularly for key areas where there is substantial air-sea disequilibrium. The MedSeA project will expand projections of acidification to include the Mediterranean Sea by relying on modelling tools, which themselves will rely on experimental results.

Specific objectives

• Simulate past and current basin-wide distributions of pH, carbonate saturation states, and related carbon-system variables.
• Project changes in pH, carbonate saturation states, and related carbon-system variables during the 21st century.
• Assess the response of the pelagic food web and the impact on selected organisms of ecological and economic importance.
• Distinguish the impacts of increasing acidification and climate change on the carbonate system variables and the role played by pelagic biotic processes.
• Produce multivariate maps of vulnerability to ocean acidification according to 21st century climate change scenarios.